Lions are majestic big cats that have captured our imagination for centuries. But sadly, lion populations have declined significantly in recent decades. If you’re wondering when lions might go extinct, read on for a comprehensive look at the status of lions and an evidence-based prediction.
If you’re short on time, here’s a quick answer: Most experts believe African lions are not currently at risk of full extinction, but their numbers have dropped by 43% in just the last few decades. Based on current population trends and ongoing threats like habitat loss, trophy hunting and human-wildlife conflict, lions could disappear from large swaths of Africa within our lifetimes if conservation efforts are not significantly intensified.
The Current Status of Lions
Lion Populations Have Declined Significantly
Lions, the iconic ‘King of the Jungle’, have seen their numbers decline dramatically over the past century. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, there are only about 20,000 lions left in the wild globally.
That’s a staggering decline of over 90% in just 100 years!
The main threats facing lions are loss of habitat and prey, as well as conflict with humans. As the human population expands, lions’ habitat has been reduced and fragmented. With less space to roam and fewer prey animals to hunt, many lion populations cannot survive.
Lions also come into increased contact with livestock and humans living nearby. They may prey on livestock, which leads to retaliation killing by humans. Trophy hunting has also put pressure on lion numbers in some areas.
Vulnerable in Many Regions, But Not Yet Endangered Overall
While the overall lion population has crashed, not all lion subpopulations are equally threatened. The IUCN currently classifies lions as Vulnerable, just short of Endangered.
However, two major subpopulations in India and West Africa are now Endangered. Meanwhile, the iconic African lions in countries like Kenya, Tanzania, and Botswana are still relatively numerous and classified as Vulnerable.
There is still hope to bring lions back from the brink. But concerted conservation efforts are needed, especially in the most at-risk regions. Anti-poaching patrols, sustainable trophy hunting quotas, and programs to reduce human-lion conflict are some of the tools that could make a difference.
With robust protections, lion populations in strongholds like the Serengeti or Kruger National Park can hopefully continue to thrive. And recovery may still be possible for critically endangered populations if urgent action is taken while lions cling to survival.
Why Lion Populations Are Declining
Habitat Loss
One of the biggest threats facing lions is habitat loss and fragmentation. As the human population expands, more land is cleared for agriculture, infrastructure, and settlements. This encroaches on the habitats lions rely on and breaks up their range into smaller, disconnected pockets.
Between 1993 and 2014, lion range declined by about 43% across Africa. In places like West and Central Africa, lion populations have been hit extremely hard by habitat loss, declining by over 60% in just two decades.
Without large, connected habitats to roam, hunt, and breed, lions struggle to survive.
Trophy Hunting
Trophy hunting of lions, though controversial, has been promoted as a conservation strategy based on the premise that it provides incentives for habitat protection and generates funding. However, research indicates trophy hunting is not effectively contributing to lion conservation.
Studies have found minimal financial contributions from hunting operators to communities living near hunting areas. There are also concerns over sustainability, as in some areas infanticide by incoming males following the hunting of pride male lions disrupts prides and population growth.
According to scientists, trophy hunting removes too many adult males essential for pride stability and breeding. Between 2008 and 2011, hunting removed over 500 lions per year on average across Africa.
Human-Wildlife Conflict
As human settlements expand into lion habitats, negative interactions between lions and people increase dramatically. Lions kill livestock and sometimes attack villagers, prompting communities to kill lions in retaliation or as preemptive efforts to reduce future conflicts.
Such human-lion conflict results in the deaths of hundreds of lions each year. For example, from 2014 to 2017, more than 1,000 lions were killed across Mozambique and Tanzania in response to lion attacks on people and livestock.
Solutions like lion-proof enclosures for cattle, lighting and alarm systems around villages, and compensation programs for livestock losses can help mitigate conflicts and save lion lives.
Conservation Efforts to Save Lions
Protected Areas
Lions reside in protected wildlife reserves and national parks across Africa, which allow their numbers to be monitored and afford them protection from poaching and habitat loss. Authorities patrol these havens to deter poachers seeking lion trophies or retribution for livestock killings.
For example, Uganda’s Queen Elizabeth National Park provides sanctuary for over 600 lions in its 1,978 square kilometers of savanna and woodland.
Reduced Trophy Hunting
Many wildlife conservation groups have called for banning trophy hunting of lions and other endangered species. The U.S. added lions to its Endangered Species Act in 2015, making it harder for American trophy hunters to import lion parts.
According to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), trophy hunting removes too many adult males essential for prides and can destabilize lion populations already struggling from poaching and habitat encroachment.
Community Engagement
Outreach programs promote coexistence between lions and local communities whose livestock make easy prey. Initiatives like Lion Guardians in Kenya hire warriors from tribes like the Maasai to track and protect lion prides rather than kill them in retaliation for cattle raiding.
These guardians share early warnings with villages when prides roam nearby so preventative measures can be taken, such as reinforcing enclosures (“bomas”) to deter night attacks. Their efforts have reduced lion killings by local tribes by 80%.
Save the Children runs Boma Kids Clubs teaching indigenous youth the value of protecting wildlife and their habitat. Club members act as stewards, speaking to village elders and peers about best practices.
They also learn arts, sports, and life skills for alternative livelihoods not dependent on grazing cattle. Such outreach plants seeds of change for future generations to treasure rather than fear their iconic neighbors.
Scientific Projections on Lion Extinction Risk
Optimistic Scenarios
Some more optimistic models predict that lion populations may stabilize in the coming decades. A 2019 study found that under the most optimistic scenario, where conservation efforts are fully implemented and threats are significantly reduced, the African lion population could grow to over 35,000 by 2050.
This would require major commitments from African nations to set aside well-connected, well-protected habitat and ensure ample prey. It would also require ending trophy hunting, reducing poaching through community engagement programs, and mitigating human-wildlife conflict to allow lions and humans to coexist.
Through coordinated international support and adequate funding for on-the-ground conservation, scientists are hopeful lion numbers may rebound. However, continued habitat loss and prey depletion pose persistent threats that could override conservation gains.
Pessimistic Scenarios
More pessimistic models accounting for ongoing pressures predict accelerating declines. Researchers estimate Africa could lose 50% of its remaining 20,000 wild lions by 2035 due to continued trophy hunting and poaching.
Loss of wilderness areas and depletion of natural prey from bushmeat poaching and competition with livestock are also conservation challenges. Under a worst-case scenario, wild African lions could be nearly extinct by 2050, with small populations isolated in heavily protected areas.
For other lion subspecies, the situation is more dire. There are likely less than 50 Asiatic lions remaining. And the West African lion was declared “critically endangered” in 2015 after research showed it to be nearly extinct, with no confirmed sightings since initial surveys.
While varying models make exact predictions difficult, scientists agree that without urgent intervention, lions face local extinction across much of Africa. Achieving optimistic growth projections would require Herculean conservation efforts on an unprecedented scale.
Conclusion
The fate of lions remains uncertain. While outright extinction is unlikely in the near future, we could see functionally extinct lion populations that are no longer viable in many regions of Africa within our lifetimes without dedicated conservation action. But there is hope.
If habitat can be preserved, human-wildlife conflicts mitigated and trophy hunting curtailed, lions can bounce back. The next decade will be crucial in determining if these iconic big cats can continue thriving for centuries to come.
